Since attaining self-rule in 1960, Nigeria has made several attempts at enthroning virile democracy, with some always ending in a fiasco. But, the 4th Republic, which began on May 29, 1999, seems to have broken the jinx of longevity, though political observers contend that it is not yet Uhuru due to myriad of paradoxes. The Nigerian socio-economic and political landscape has journeyed from Obasanjo’s “reform agenda” to Yar’Adua’s “seven-point agenda.”
We have also had a “transformation agenda” under Jonathan, and presently we have Buhari’s “change agenda.” Are these just name nomenclatures or terminologies? The salient point must be made here that none of these agenda greatly improved the larger standard of living of the masses.
The proposed budget of N8.612 trillion (16% higher than the 2017 budget), going by analysis, may likely suffer the fate of its predecessors if not urgently retooled. By the way, where are the 2016 and 2017 budgets? Were they ever implemented?
The 2018 budget assumption was premised on a crude oil benchmark price of US $45 per barrel, with an output of Oil production estimate of 2.3 million barrels per day, including condensates, as against that of 2017, which was $42.50 per barrel, and output was put at 2.2 million barrels per day.
The President said the exchange rate of N305/US$ was set for 2018, while real Gross Domestic Product, GDP growth of 3.5 per cent was projected and inflation rate of 12.4 per cent. It is no longer news that with the current implementation of the Treasury Single Account (TSA), one would have expected significant improvement in the collection and remittance of independent revenues. Unfortunately, it has not yielded much fruits; rather, after the passage of the 2016/2017 padded budgets, the Nigerian economy went into deep recession in the 1st and 2nd quarters of 2016. It was not until the third quarter of 2017, we were told that the country is out of recession. Is this true, with a two – digit inflation and prices out of the people’s reach? Just a few days ago, PMB presented the 2018 proposed “budget of consolidation” to the joint sitting of the National Assembly, a budget which the Senate President, Dr. Bukola Saraki, acknowledged to have come earlier than December.
I had once stated in one of my earlier writeups that Nigeria was projected by CNN Money as the world’s 3rd fastest growing economy when GEJ handed over to PMB in May, 2015. Nigeria’s GDP growth rate was 6.1% (for the last full year before the handover). Where are we today? Prosperity to recession, plenty to poverty, joy to melancholy, hope to hopelessness, democratized corruption to privatized corruption. The proposed aggregate expenditure of N 8.612 trillion will comprise the following: recurrent costs of N3.494 trillion; debt service of N2.014 trillion; statutory transfers of about N456 billion; sinking fund of N220 billion (to retire maturing bond to local contractors) and capital expenditure of N2.428 trillion (excluding the capital component of statutory transfers).
RECURRENT EXPENDITURE
A substantial part of the recurrent cost proposal for 2018 is for the payment of salaries and overheads in key ministries providing critical public services such as: N510.87 billion for Interior; N435.01 billion for education; N422.43 billion for defence and N269.34 billion for health.
CAPITAL EXPENDITURE
Key capital spending allocations in the 2018 Budget include: Power, Works and Housing = N555.88 billion; Transportation = N263.10 billion; Special Intervention Programmes = N150.00 billion; Defence = N145.00 billion; Agriculture and Rural Development = N118.98 billion; Water Resources = N95.11 billion; Industry, Trade and Investment = N82.92 billion; Interior = N63.26 billion; Education = N61.73 billion; Universal Basic Education Commission = N109.06 billion; Health = N71.11 billion; Federal Capital Territory = N40.30 billion; Zonal Intervention Projects = N100.00 billion; North East Intervention Fund = N45.00 billion; Niger Delta Ministry = N53.89 billion and Niger Delta Development Commission = N71.20 billion.
KEY PROJECTS AND PROGRAMMES TO BE IMPLEMENTED IN 2018
N9.8 billion for the Mambilla Hydro Power Project, including N8.5 billion as counterpart funding; N12 billion counterpart funding for earmarked transmission lines and substations; N35.41 billion for the National Housing Programme; N10.00 billion for the 2nd Niger Bridge; About N300 billion for the construction and rehabilitation of strategic roads;
Regional Spending Priorities for Peace, Security and Development; N65 billion for the Presidential Amnesty Programme has been retained in the 2018 Budget; Capital provision for the Ministry of Niger Delta increased to N53.89 billion from the N34.20 billion provided in 2017; Completion of East-West Road, with a provision of about N17.32 billion in 2018. Nigerian government’s last three budgets are the most laughable, wasteful, unsympathetic and economically vile than I have ever seen for years. I am not an economist or financial expert, or a student of statistics.
But, I sure have common sense. Why am I saying this? Let us take a holistic view of the proposed budgets. One will discover that under the capital expenditures, Power, Works and Housing alone, take N555.88 billion as the highest proposed allocation for 2018 budgets, while health ranks 12th position. Where are the houses earmarked in the 2016 and 2017 budgets?
Where are the roads? Where is the power? Without mincing words, with the recent outbreak of Monkey pox, measles and Lassa fever, and the fight to end polio and high maternal and child deaths, the health sector budgetary allocation is low against the backdrop in terms of the percentage given to it in 2017 budget. Though, there was a little increase in capital expenditure when compared to the N51.1billion earmarked for it in 2017, in percentage terms, it was a decline as the 2017 budget was N7.4 trillion, while that of 2018 budget is N8.612trillion.
In the 2018 health budget proposal, N269.34 billion was earmarked for recurrent expenditure which refers mainly to expenditure on operations, wages and salaries, purchases of goods and services, and current grants and subsidies; while a meager N71.11 billion is for capital expenditure.
Are we cursed as a nation? Just recently, I wrote on the pitiable, poor and devastating nature of the Aso Villa Clinic, in an article I titled, “Moonlight tales continue: Aso Villa Clinic As A Metaphor Of Our Quagmire,” where I stated among others things that:
‘The first question that bugs the mind is whether this is not the same State House Clinic which it’s outrageous and baffling budget allocation of N3.87 billion in 2016, far outweighed the other 16 teaching hospitals combined. Federal teaching hospitals cater for the health needs of millions of Nigerians, train medical doctors and other health professionals for the nation, while also serving as top medical research centres… investigation showed that the clinic is gradually becoming a shadow of its old self, despite the humongous and outrageous allocations to the clinic in 2016 and 2017.
’Haba! How much more now that the proposed allocation for 2018 is smaller, from all indications? Generally, the country is also beset by poor primary health facilities, lack of functioning cancer machines or treatment centers, poor health emergency responses and low coverage of the health insurance scheme, among other issues. According to the World Health Organisation (WHO), Nigeria is rated 187th out of 191 countries in terms of health care delivery.
W.H.O had analyzed that, one-third of more than 700 health facilities have been destroyed in the country and about 3.7 million people are in need of health assistance. Analysis shows that about N359.2 billion is spent in Nigeria on medical tourism annually.
PMB had promised to end this. Rather than do this, he led Nigerians more into foreign medical tourism. Gracious God! Where do we go from here? Judging by the recent and incessant strike by various sectors of the nation, especially the recent called off nationwide strike by the Joint Health Sector Unions (JOHESU) and the Assembly of Healthcare Professionals, to protest among other issues, salaries adjustments, promotion arrears, and improved work environment for its members, it was critical that the country’s health sector should have been given priority in the 2018 proposed budget. Medical experts have described as worrisome the recent figures released by international agencies which put Nigeria’s maternal mortality rate at 58,000 in 2015. This showed that Nigeria recorded the second highest maternal death rate in the world.
To be continued
THOUGHT FOR THE WEEK
“There’s nothing more important than our good health – that’s our principal capital asset.” (Arlen Specter).
LAST LINE
Are fellow Nigerians still reading, digesting and always awaiting the next explosive discourse of Sunday Sermon on the Mount of the Nigerian Project by Chief Mike Ozekhome, SAN, OFR, FCIArb, LL.D?
